A Case for Large Scale Solar PV in Kenya

Posted Sep 17, 2009 | 0 | Filed under:

The current understanding in Kenya is that solar is "too expensive". This is the explanation given for lack of a feed in tariff, and the reason why no large scale solar projects have been implemented thus far.

But how much in dollars or shillings, is "too expensive"? It is "too expensive" relative to what? The existing generation capacity in hydro, some of which dates back to pre - independence, equipment that is fully amortized and that is due for overhaul? In fact, according to Platts, in the next 6 yrs, over 70% of existing generation plants in Sub Saharan Africa will be over 40 yrs old. Is solar power "too expensive" relative to geothermal power? Well, according to the Geothermal Energy Association, the cost per kW of Geothermal power starts at $3,400, and the development lead time is over 5 yrs, then the real cost is the kW cost along with the marginal additional cost of emergency power for the five years leading to the project implementation. This is because as a country, we are have a generation deficit. 

If we analyze the "too expensive" statement further, is it too expensive relative to centralized generation technologies such as large hydro and geothermal plants? If so, then we need to factor in the distribution losses which the World Bank expects to be at 14.5% for FY08/09. Solar lends itself to smaller distrubed generation that effectively could limit the distribution losses or in some instances, when installed along "weak grid areas" could act as a boost that helps lower the overall losses. 

It has been argued that solar energy is "too expensive" for "poor people". Too expensive relative to the $.60 to $.80 they pay for kerosene lanterns, ( not to mention the fire risk, the poor lighting for kids doing homework and the indoor air pollution) as opposed to products such as solar lanterns?, too expensive relative to the ksh. 100 that people spend every two weeks for batteries for torches and radios?

I think not. Solar today is competitive with other generation sources for specific applications and geographic locations. As the cost of PV continues to decline, solar's economics will keep improving.